Business

2026 Holiday Shopping Forecast: What Retailers Expect and What It Means for You

Three major forecasts predict record holiday spending in 2026, but rising prices and value hunting are shaping how and when people shop.

RK

Renata Kowalczyk

Culture & Business Writer

Published Nov 6, 2026 8 min read

The 2026 holiday shopping forecast points to a record season with caution built in. The National Retail Federation expects sales to rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, Adobe projects $275.1 billion online, and Deloitte says the average household will spend $1,654. Higher prices explain part of the growth, and shoppers plan to hunt for deals.

Seller Ideas follows the places where culture and business meet, and few things fit that description better than the holidays. This guide is for shoppers planning a budget and anyone curious about what the big forecasts really say. It covers the three major predictions, the habits behind them, and a few ways to plan your own spending.

What Does the 2026 Holiday Shopping Forecast Say?

The National Retail Federation (NRF), a major U.S. retail trade group, forecasts that November and December sales will grow 4.2% over 2025. That would bring the total to $1.013 trillion. Last year, holiday sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion.

NRF's economic perspective credits steady consumer spending. It notes that almost 80% of GDP growth over the last four quarters came from consumers. The group's September Retail Monitor showed 12 straight months of retail sales growth.

The forecast also comes with a warning. NRF expects core goods inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.6% in 2025. Even so, it says about half of the projected growth should come from real spending rather than higher prices.

NRF counts sales at retailers, but it excludes cars, gasoline, and restaurants. That makes the figure a narrower measure of gift buying than your total holiday spending. Keep that in mind when you compare it with other forecasts.

How Much Will Each Household Spend This Year?

Consumers expect to spend an average of $1,654 per household, according to the 2026 Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey. That is up 4% from last year. The survey polled 4,000 consumers and is in its 41st year.

The same survey shows why shoppers are nervous. About 79% of respondents expect higher prices. Nearly 4 in 10 qualify as holiday value seekers who use promotions, rewards, and private-label products. Those shoppers plan to spend 12% more than everyone else, which suggests that bargain hunting and big budgets often go together.

Spending is not evenly shared. NRF says higher-income households are likely to do more of the heavy lifting this season, helped by rising financial wealth. Higher food and gasoline prices press harder on moderate- and lower-income households.

That split affects what ends up under the tree. A family with a tight budget often trades down, buys fewer gifts, or waits for the deepest discounts. A wealthier household may spend more on travel, experiences, and premium items. Both groups appear in the same national total.

How Big Will Online Shopping and Cyber Week Be?

Adobe projects record online sales of $275.1 billion from November 1 through December 31, up 6.7% from last year. According to Digital Commerce 360's report on the Adobe forecast, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday should reach $47.5 billion. That is 17.3% of the season's online total.

The table below shows Adobe's projections for the biggest shopping days.

Cyber Monday would set a record as the biggest single online shopping day, topping the $14.25 billion Adobe measured in 2025. Electronics lead the season at a projected $63.3 billion, followed by apparel at $51.3 billion and furniture at $33.4 billion. Grocery, the fourth-largest category, is projected at $26.1 billion, up 10.3%.

Mobile matters more every year. Adobe expects 57.4% of holiday online sales to come from phones, up from 56.4% last year. If you plan to shop on a phone, check that your payment methods and shipping addresses are saved ahead of time, and read our guide to the 2026 holiday shipping deadlines so gifts arrive on time.

Why Are Shoppers Hunting for Value This Season?

Shoppers are hunting for value because prices are up and confidence is shaky. NRF's October consumer survey found that 56% of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending. Among them, 43% plan to shop sales more often, 31% will compare prices online more often, and 29% will use coupons more often.

Timing is changing too. In the same NRF survey, 64% of consumers said they are likely to wait for Thanksgiving weekend sales to do most of their shopping. Another 43% plan to start before November, mainly to spread out their budgets. Deloitte found 22% will shop sooner than last year.

Prices are a big part of the story. Higher diesel costs raise shipping bills, and NRF says AI investment is pushing up prices in categories like electronics. Our reporting on the Thanksgiving dinner cost for 2026 shows the same pattern at the grocery store, with some items up and others down.

Trade policy adds uncertainty as well. If you bought imported goods earlier this year, our explainer on tariff refunds after the Supreme Court ruling explains whether shoppers can expect any money back.

How Are AI Tools and Buy Now, Pay Later Changing Holiday Shopping?

Two tools are reshaping the season: AI assistants for research and buy now, pay later (BNPL) for payment. Adobe projects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites will rise 130% this season, with the biggest jumps on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. Deloitte found 39% of shoppers use generative AI as their main tool for at least one holiday task.

Trust has limits. Only 16% of Deloitte's respondents say they would let AI complete a purchase for them. Shoppers like help finding a gift, but they still want to press the buy button themselves.

BNPL is growing too. Adobe projects it could generate $21.3 billion in holiday online sales, up 6.6%. On Cyber Monday alone, BNPL could account for $1.09 billion. These plans can help you smooth out a big purchase, but missed payments can still lead to fees and credit damage.

The warning applies to every split payment. If you cannot pay the full price within the plan, you may be buying more than your budget allows. A simple rule is to treat each installment as a bill that must fit your monthly income.

What Do Younger Shoppers and Experience Gifts Say About the Season?

Gen Z and millennials are expected to make up 50% of holiday spending for the first time in Deloitte's survey. These shoppers are more likely to self-gift and consider luxury items. They also shop earlier and expect a smoother digital experience.

Experiences are gaining ground as well. Half of Deloitte's surveyed shoppers plan to gift an experience, up 11 percentage points since 2024. Most plan to pair it with a physical gift, so concert tickets or a class come with something wrapped.

That shift reflects a cultural change as much as an economic one. People want gifts that feel personal and memorable, but they also want proof of value. A gift card for a cooking class can feel both thoughtful and affordable, which explains why it keeps showing up on lists.

What Could Change the Forecast Before December?

Forecasts are models, not promises, and several things could move the final numbers. NRF points to gasoline prices as a key risk. It says the longer gas prices stay elevated, the more pressure builds on households at the lower end of the income scale.

Support from large tax refunds earlier in the year has also worn off, according to NRF. That support helped offset higher fuel costs for the first eight months of 2026. Without it, many families have less cushion heading into the peak weeks.

Consumer confidence is weak, but NRF notes that confidence is a poor predictor of what people actually spend. It says real disposable income, labor market health, and household wealth give a better read. Those measures still point to growth.

There is also the question of how forecasters count. NRF, Adobe, and Deloitte measure different things. NRF counts retail sales, Adobe counts online sales, and Deloitte asks households what they plan to spend. A strong number from one does not guarantee the others will match.

The practical takeaway is to treat the headline figures as context. Your own budget matters far more than a national total, and a few weeks of promotions can look very different once you add shipping and returns.

How Can You Plan a Holiday Budget That Holds Up?

Start with a single number for the season and divide it by the people on your list. Deloitte's $1,654 average is a reference point, not a target. Your own budget should reflect your income, debt, and other goals.

Next, rank your purchases. Put the biggest-ticket items first and decide where a deal would really help. Electronics and furniture often see the deepest promotions, so those are worth waiting for if the timing works.

Then set price alerts and compare before you buy. A listed discount is only meaningful if the starting price was real. Check the price history on a few major items, and use any rewards or cash back you already earn.

Finally, leave room for the unexpected. Shipping fees, returns, and last-minute gifts can add up. At Seller Ideas, we suggest holding back about 10% of your budget for surprises, and paying with cash or debit whenever you can to avoid carrying a balance into January.

The Bottom Line on 2026 Holiday Shopping

The forecasts agree that Americans will spend more this holiday season, but they also show a careful shopper. Sales are rising, prices are too, and deals are driving when and how people buy. Set your budget early, plan around the big sale days, and spend only what you can pay off.