The 2026 Holiday Sales Forecast Explained: What a $1.013 Trillion Season Really Means
The National Retail Federation expects a $1.013 trillion holiday season. Here is what is driving the number, who is spending, and what the fine print says.
In this article 8 sections
The 2026 holiday sales forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF) calls for 4.2% growth in November and December, reaching $1.013 trillion. Roughly half of that growth is real spending, and the rest is higher prices. Higher-income households are expected to carry more of the season than lower-income ones.
A forecast that big sounds like good news for everyone. The truth is more mixed. This guide explains where the number comes from, what is pushing it up, and what it says about how Americans are really feeling about money. It is written for shoppers, small retail owners, and anyone who reads the headline and wonders what sits underneath it.
Here at Seller Ideas, we read the forecast as a cultural document as much as a financial one. The way people say they will shop tells you what they are worried about.
What Does the 2026 Holiday Sales Forecast Actually Say?
The forecast says retail sales in November and December will rise 4.2% over 2025 and reach $1.013 trillion. That would speed up from last year's 3.1% gain. NRF counts the season as November 1 through December 31 and leaves out gas stations, car dealers, and restaurants.
The numbers come from an economic model, not a survey of stores. NRF feeds it data on consumer spending, disposable income, jobs, wages, inflation, and past monthly retail sales. That is a sensible method, but a model is still a guess about the future.
The track record matters here. Last year's season grew 3.1% to $972 billion. That fell short of the 3.7% to 4.2% range NRF predicted, according to Retail Dive's report on the forecast. A 4.2% call this year should be read as a target, not a promise.
| Measure | 2025 | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday sales growth | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| Total holiday sales | $972 billion | $1.013 trillion |
| Core goods inflation (PCE) | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| Seasonal hires | 265,000 to 365,000 (forecast) | 325,000 to 375,000 |
How Much of the 4.2% Growth Is Real Spending and How Much Is Higher Prices?
About half of the 4.2% comes from real spending, according to NRF. The other half is price increases. Put simply, a shopper buys roughly 2% more stuff this year, and pays more for each item.
The price side has two causes. NRF expects core goods inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to average 2.5% in 2026. Last year it was 1.6%. Higher diesel costs raise shipping bills, and heavy AI investment is pushing up the cost of electronics, which are popular gifts.
That is the reason a record-sounding dollar figure can feel flat in a real store. NRF's chief economist wrote in NRF's Retail Economic Perspective that he expects retailers to work hard to hold prices down with promotions and discounts. Expect plenty of sale signs, and read each one with a calculator.
Consumers are also doing a lot of the lifting overall. The same NRF analysis says almost 80% of U.S. economic growth over the last four quarters came from consumer spending. That is why economists watch the holiday season so closely.
A quick example shows the effect. A gift basket that cost $100 last December would cost about $102.50 at 2.5% core goods inflation. A household that holds its gift list steady still has to find the extra $2.50. Multiply that across every gift, and the squeeze is easy to feel even if the total never makes the news.
Why Are Higher-Income Households Carrying More of the Season?
Higher-income households are expected to do the heavy lifting because their wealth is rising while costs bite harder for everyone else. NRF says higher food and gasoline prices will press hardest on moderate- and lower-income families. Rising financial wealth keeps wealthier households spending.
Earlier this year, large tax refunds helped households absorb higher gas costs. NRF says that cushion has worn off. The longer gas stays expensive, the more the pressure builds at the lower end of the income range.
This is the same split that shows up in other parts of the economy. For more on how interest-rate decisions reach household budgets, see our explainer on what the Federal Reserve's October meeting means for your money. Households on fixed incomes face their own version of the squeeze, which our breakdown of the 3.6% Social Security COLA for 2027 walks through.
Be careful with the word "average" here. A headline total can grow while a large share of households spend less. That is a real exception to the cheerful reading of the forecast, and it is easy to miss.
How Are Shoppers Changing Their Holiday Plans?
Most shoppers are changing how they buy, not whether they buy. In NRF's October Holiday Consumer Survey, 56% of holiday shoppers said the economy will affect their spending plans. Among them, 43% plan to shop sales more often, 31% will compare prices online more, and 29% will use coupons more.
Timing is shifting too. The same survey found that 64% of consumers are likely to wait for Thanksgiving weekend sales to do most of their shopping. At the same time, 43% plan to start before November, and spreading out the budget was the leading reason.
Those two groups are not contradicting each other. One group waits for the lowest price. The other pays in smaller pieces over more weeks. Both are a way of managing a tight budget.
Shipping dates matter more when shoppers spread out their buying. Our 2026 holiday shipping deadlines guide for USPS, FedEx and UPS lists the last safe day to ship with each carrier. Missing a cutoff can erase the savings from a good deal.
Does Weak Consumer Confidence Mean the Forecast Will Miss?
Not necessarily. NRF's economist says consumer confidence is weak but a poor predictor of what people actually spend. Real disposable income, the health of the job market, and household wealth give a better guide, and all three still point toward growth.
This gap between mood and behavior is one of the more interesting cultural facts of the year. People tell pollsters they are worried. Then they keep shopping, because the holidays carry meaning that a budget spreadsheet does not. The season is about family, friends, and loved ones, and NRF notes that shoppers keep putting those people first even while they feel financial pressure.
Spending on the holidays works a bit like a promise. A parent who skips a night out in October can still find the money for a gift in December. That is not irrational. It is a ranking of what matters, and it is why holiday sales tend to hold up when other categories wobble.
There are still ways the forecast could miss. Gas prices could stay high and drain lower-income budgets faster than expected. Stock prices could fall and weaken the wealth effect that supports higher earners. Last year's shortfall shows that even a careful model can land below its own range.
What Does Muted Seasonal Hiring Say About the Season?
Seasonal hiring is forecast to stay modest. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers. For comparison, retailers hired 442,000 in 2024, per Retail Dive.
NRF's chief economist described the labor market as "low hire, low fire." Employers are not cutting many workers, but they are not adding many either. Retailers expect steady crowds, not a rush that needs hundreds of thousands of extra hands.
That fits the larger picture. Shoppers are spending, but carefully. Stores are open, but cautious. The season looks sturdy rather than booming, which is a quieter story than the trillion-dollar headline suggests.
What Should You Do With This Forecast?
Use it as context, not as advice. A forecast describes millions of households at once, and your own budget is the only one that matters for your decisions. The useful part is the pattern: prices are up a little, sales events are everywhere, and timing is flexible.
A few practical steps follow from that:
- Set a firm gift budget before the first sale email arrives.
- Compare prices across at least two stores for any item over $100.
- Check carrier cutoffs before ordering anything that needs to arrive by a date.
- Pay with cash or a debit card where you can, so January bills hold no surprises.
Small retail owners can read the forecast the same way. Expect strong traffic around Thanksgiving weekend, price-conscious buyers, and a lot of comparison shopping on phones.
Seller Ideas's editors checked each figure in this article against NRF's own releases and the Retail Dive report. Where the sources round numbers differently, we used the exact figure NRF published. We also did our own arithmetic only where noted, such as the roughly 2% real growth and the $102.50 example.
Conclusion
The 2026 holiday sales forecast is real good news with an asterisk. Spending is growing, and about half of that growth is more actual buying. The rest is inflation, and the benefits are not shared evenly across income levels.
Seller Ideas will keep tracking the numbers as the season unfolds. Check them against the final results in January, and treat a missed forecast as information, not a scandal. The next step for any household is simple: decide what you can afford first, then go shopping.
